Turtle Bay is @ 3.0 and going to 4.0

I have discussed Turtle Bay in many other posts. The Oaktree Era is covered in these two :

Oaktree Turns Around Turtle Bay

Opposition Starts to Turtle Bay

1.0 - Del Webb built Kuilima/Turtle Bay on, with the exception of Kawela Bay, junk land. It was land that Kahuku told him he could build on. Poor Del Webb thought he would be able to build a casino. The land he was "given" was an old airfield and swamp on the Kahuku side and sugar cane fields on the Kawela side.

Del Webb sold it to Prudential, Prudential sold it to the Japanese Company - Asahi Junken.

2.0 Asahi wanted to develop it, market changed, money ran out, place became a dump with "Beirut" as a nickname.

3.0 Oaktree buys it. Fixes it. Wants to develop. North Shore and Oahu Environmental activists with Local 5 Union support drum up an opposition campaign against the development which leads us to today.

4.0 What will happen to Turtle Bay?

If you read and believe the wacko, lie strewn, propaganda put out by groups like Defend Oahu Coalition, Keep The North Shoe County, and the Paumalu Press you would think that Turtle Bay WILL build a total of 3,500 more hotel, condos or homes.

The big correction they all know but are unwilling to make because they want to scare you is this - Turtle Bay CAN build up to 3,500 more hotel, condos or homes.

Let's say you live up in Pupukea and you have 2 acres - approximately 88,000 square feet of land and you are on a residential lot. You CAN build a house that is about 25% of the lot size. So if you go by the wacko logic, you WILL build a house that is 22,000 square feet. Crazy yes?

Since the Unilateral Agreement was completed 20 years ago and Oaktree started working on Turtle Bay 10 years ago, the market for hotels and condos has changed a lot. Density - think Wailea, Waikoloa, Kaanapali has gone out of fashion. New hotel projects that are doing well are less dense - Hualalai, Kona Village and are getting more money per room.

The most desirable condo projects are not in large complexes but feel more like single family homes. The per square foot price is much higher for lower density, higher luxury, more private accommodations. The Ocean Villas at Turtle Bay are almost sold out and they went from about $1,000,000 to $3,500,000.

Say what you want about Turtle Bay, but they have done a very smart job of fixing the place up. Everything they have built has won awards and is world class. Lei Lei's, Ola, The Palmer Course, the Beach Cottages and Ocean Villas. Maybe not in your opinion, but look it up. To think they are all of a sudden going to get stupid and build a bunch of cheap junk is absurd.

Turtle Bay will most likely build less, spending less money on construction and selling it for more. Why? Not because of you serial protesting robots, but because that is the market. It is easier to sell 500 condos at $2,000,000 than a 1,000 at $1,000,000. It is easier to fill 800 hotel rooms at $800 a night than it is to fill 2,500 hotel rooms at $350 a night. It is cheaper to build less. It is cheaper to maintain less, it is cheaper to replace the linens and repaint fewer units.

Turtle Bay will not build these things themselves. The 6 lots for development will have different partners or buyers. Until they get a buyer or partner to design or build something, they nor anyone else on the planet has a clue as to what exactly will be built there. For the Serial Protesters to demand to see the plans and demand to know what Kuilima is up to, just shows again how ignorant or deceiving these people are. To make it simple. Let's say there are 6 - 2 acre lots for sale right next to each other in Pupukea. Each one will be bought by a different owner and that owner will build their own house. Tell me what the houses will look like and how big will they be before anyone buys a lot. If you don't tell me, you are a liar or holding back information. This is the same situation Turtle Bay is in.

What do you think those evil genius capitalists at Kuilima Resort Company are going to do?

My guess is less density, more profit.

So what is the North Shore to do?

My suggestion - see what we can get out of it.

Start talking to Turtle Bay. Stop the idiotic lawsuits. If the government wants to change Turtle Bay's zoning and make it a park it would be simple. Pay Turtle Bay the difference of what they could have made. The rumor I heard was that Turtle Bay's land was appraised at $1,000,000,000 - that's right a billion. Let's say they can sell the hotel and golf courses and the land under the condos for $200,000,000 and they give the government a Kamaaina Discount of 25% off for the rest. The land sale of $800,000,000 will only cost us taxpayers a cool $600,000,000. Makes the rail system seem cheap and shows you why the city is being careful.

Here is a list of some of the things that the community might be able to get in return for some sanity.

• - North Shore Discount Card good on restaurants, golf, concerts, drinks, hotel rooms for our visiting relatives. Let's say Turtle Bay offered a rate of $150 a night for our visiting relatives and gave them one night free for every two nights they stay. Then they'd be out of our house and we could visit them and maybe crash the pool without feeling too guilty.
• - Restaurants that offer low to medium family prices. Perhaps they could be persuaded to open some bars, clubs, shops that would not be tourist prices so we could go there. Come to think of it, that would be nice over in Haleiwa as well.
• - Bike Path. Turtle Bay says they want to hook up a bike path to Kahuku, why not to Sunset, other than the obvioius reason that we all want the Sunset people to stay in Sunset.
• - Sewage Treatment - Turtle Bay's sewage plant is built for up to 4,500 units. If they don't build that much how about letting some of Kahuku or Sunset hook up so our poop doesn't go where it goes now into cesspools, leech fields and who knows where else.
• - YMCA - Blake and Jack's deal for Paumalu Pupukea is going to make the dream of a YMCA go down the drain. Maybe Turtle Bay can set aside some land for a YMCA there.
• - Meeting Rooms, Concert Halls, Graduation Spaces - Have Turtle Bay make available some of the space they build for community events, fund raising concerts, graduations, piano recitals, charity functions, hospital balls, etc..
• - Road to Wahaiwa - Have Turtle Bay use their clout to get the road done. It is our only hope to lessen traffic on Kam Hwy along the beach.

Turtle Bay 4.0,5.0 and beyond are going to happen. Let's make it work for us.